Rudy Concedes In Iowa, But Less Than We Might Think

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

RUDY GIULIANI, MITT ROMNEY

The word is that Giuliani is conceding Iowa to Romney - or at least conceding first place - but I think this move is a) not that surprising and b) not that big a concession on the part of Team Rudy.

Giuliani hasn't broken 20 percent in Iowa consistently since March. Then again, Iowa has never been on his list of must-win states, it's one of his "nice to win" states. All he has to do is not get blown out, and recent polling numbers put him at 11 percent, 16 percent, 13 percent - all in the neighborhood of third or fourth place. The biggest worry would be a truly disappointing performance - single digits - five days before New Hampshire.

I realize some will argue against comparing Republican caucusgoers to Democratic caucusgoers, but I think that there is a certain bandwagon effect in the Iowa caucuses. Back in 2004, Kerry took the lead at the right time and ended up winning by a much wider margin than expected. At 38 percent, he finished 6 percent ahead of Edwards. If a candidate leads in the polls for a long time, a certain number of caucusgoers are going to conclude, "he's a winner, I'll go with him." I think that if the polls hold between now and Caucus night - and there's no reason to think they'll stay the same - you'll see a certain bandwagon effect for the candidate who's led Iowa for a long while - Romney - and for the candidate who's led nationally for a long while - Giuliani.

11/13 11:38 AM Share