The Challenge Facing Team McCain Now

Monday, February 11, 2008

JOHN MCCAIN

It's one of the ironies of campaign momentum that Team McCain may have an easier time getting out the vote before they had their Super Tuesday success than afterwards.

Team McCain isn't spinning that Saturday's contests were good news for them, because they weren't. They're taking solace in the fact that they didn't really lose that much this weekend. Because no candidate hit 50 percent in Louisiana, McCain is still set to take at least 41 out of 47 delegates from that state's caucuses. In Kansas, they argue that it was always a natural Huckabee state. And in Washington state, no delegates were actually at stake in this round. (The incomplete results released by the state party indicated McCain ahead, anyway.)

Tuesday's Potomac primaries (Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C.) will be a more significant measuring stick. The problem for the McCain effort is that Huckabee's supporters will show up, Ron Paul's voters will show up, and disgruntled conservatives who find McCain unacceptable will probably show up to vote against him. McCain's supporters may show up... or they may conclude that the race is over, and that their man doesn't need their vote. (As mentioned last week, many northern Virginia Republicans were thinking of voting in the Democratic primary.)

"Getting turnout, it’s a very real problem," said one McCain strategist. "People who participate in primaries are less engaged in the day to day, and getting them to turn out is a little more challenging when the front page is 'McCain has the nomination wrapped up.' In those circumstances, the races will be closer. The latest poll in Virginia has us up 30 points, and we're not going to win by 30 points."

Having said that, Maryland is the state of Annapolis, and Virginia is the state of Newport News, so McCain will be operating with a certain floor of retired military veterans, the same demographic that has been key to his wins in South Carolina and Florida.

02/11 02:16 PM Share