Thursday, May 01, 2008

HORSERACE

Now This Is a Poll Obama Ought To Worry About

If InsiderAdvantage's numbers are right, we may be witnessing a huge shift in what was supposed to be Obama's safe state on Tuesday:

A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

...InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.

“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.

“If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery.

I'm looking for a reason to be skeptical of this poll, and I'm not seeing it. Good sample size, likely voters... 15 percent of the sample is unaffiliated voters. Under North Carolina law, Democrats and unaffiliated are permitted to vote in the Democratic primary; those registered with another party are not.

Further evidence Team Obama worries about Wright fallout: Barack Obama is appearing on Meet the Press this weekend.

UPDATE: John Hood is a bit of a skeptic. 

05/01 08:55 AMShare