Thursday, February 07, 2008

MITT ROMNEY

What is Romney's Endgame? An Idea.

With victory in the delegate count just about impossible, some folks are wondering what Mitt Romney is up to.

Peggy Noonan once noted that presidents who are in trouble read a lot about Abraham Lincoln and Harry Truman, because they were mocked a great deal in their day and are now fondly remembered by (most) historians. Presidents like to see themselves in great presidents vindicated by history. Of course, Noonan noted that sometimes you're ridiculed because you're underestimated or ahead of your time... and sometimes you're ridiculed because you just messed up.

It seems just as every ridiculed president sees themselves as another Lincoln or Truman, every candidate who has fallen short of his goal sees himself as Reagan 1976, or at the very least, Goldwater 1964. It's not that they're a bad candidate, it's that they were ahead of their time. The electorate, be it primary or general, wasn't ready to contemplate the good and groundbreaking ideas the candidate brought to the table; they preferred the lesser, safer, more reassuring ideas of the victorious rival. The stage wasn't set; the circumstances just weren't ripe yet.

And it's very possible that Reagan, with his "dangerous" conservative ideas, would not have gotten elected without the catastrophic failure that was the Carter presidency. With the Soviets moving into Afganistan, American hostages in Iran and the Iranians using the embassy flag to collect trash, gas lines, inflation, disco... When the Carter campaign tried to portray Reagan as a hyperaggressive warmonger, I think the American people said, "well, we've tried the nice guy approach and been humiliated... let's see what the so-called warmonger can do."

Americans have seen a lot of messes in recent years, many done in the name of conservatism, even if they themselves weren't conservative ideas. I'm not sure if there's anything inherently conservative about the "light footprint" approach to postwar Iraq from 2004-2006. Obviously, porking it up to high heaven is not conservative, even if an otherwise conservative lawmaker does it. There's nothing conservative about the perception of a slow response to a hurricane, or appointing close personal friends to head the Justice Department or trying to put one on the Supreme Court. I don't think it's conservative to do little or nothing regarding an unsecured border for years, thinking it will win over some key demographic in future elections. It's not conservative to hang around with a guy like Jack Abramoff, and to watch the number of professional lobbyists in Washington explode during a Republican presidency.

Unfortunately, the public associates that - and all of Bush's decisions - with conservatism right now. In those circumstances, it may be a tough cycle to run as the "full-spectrum" conservative.

McCain is likely to get the nomination, and he will face a tough race against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. There may be a Republican president running for reelection in 2012, or there may not be. Even if McCain wins, there may be room for a conservative to challenge a sitting Republican president (a true rerun of Ford vs. Reagan). President McCain may decide one term is enough, and a conservative may find himself contemplating a challenge to McCain's vice president.

Mitt Romney's going to learn a lot from this race, no matter how it shakes out. If he doesn't win the nomination, he has four years to spend tending to the vineyards of conservatism, to make his dedication to pro-life, pro-gun, and other conservative causes beyond question. He will be able to wonder if he should have spent less here and there, focused a bit more on South Carolina, made a play for more winner-take-all states on Super Tuesday. (His success in caucuses suggests he's the favorite of those willing to commit several hours to a presidential primary choice.) He may figure out how to jab his opponent without seeming negative, how to show appropriate, steely anger, and how to effortlessly rebut an opponent's attack.

A little less than four years from now, Mitt Romney may enter another Republican primary looking different, and perhaps more complete as a candidate.

02/07 10:50 AMShare