Tuesday, May 06, 2008

HORSERACE

The Indiana and North Carolina Predictions Roundup

Lots of predictions floating around the blogosphere today. Five-Thirty-Eight is generating buzz for projecting Obama winning North Carolina by double digits — 17 percent, actually. They think Clinton carries Indiana by 5.

Captain Ed says Hillary by 8 in Indiana, Obama by 4 in North Carolina.

Mickey Kaus: Clinton by 8 in Indiana. Obama by 3 or less in N.C.

A really detailed analysis at Race42008 says Hillary takes Indiana by 14, losing North Carolina by 10.

I've been impressed with SurveyUSA this cycle. Looking at their final Indiana poll, allocating the "undecided/other" in 2:1 Hillary-Obama split (she's closed well in the past three big contests), put me down for a Hillary win of 56 percent to 43 percent, a margin of 13. (If the networks don't call Indiana quickly, it's probably a bad sign for this prediction.)

In North Carolina, their final poll puts Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent. I notice their sample is 32 percent African-American, and it wouldn't shock me if they were a larger chunk of the electorate today. So I'll split the remaining undecided/other more evenly, and come out with a 53-47 Obama win.

With results like this, Obama will tout a respectable, but not great result that interrupts his rough patch; Hillary will note that he lost his neighboring state and still has problems with the same demographics he did in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. With West Virginia and Kentucky looming, Obama will have escaped disaster, but still be in for some rough sailing ahead.

05/06 08:33 AMShare