Monday, March 16, 2009

HORSERACE

Internal Polls Show 'Extreme Republican Self-Suppression' in NY-20

I wish I could share some good news from the special election in New York’s 20th congressional district, but I can’t.

"The data is bad and the trends are unmistakable," says a GOP source familiar with the dynamics of the race. "It's not an open and shut case, but we're seeing extreme Republican self-suppression."

By "self-suppression," the source explained that he means the Republican base is not enthused about their candidate, State Assemblyman Jim Tedisco. "He has serious Albany problems, and that’s not a good place to be associated with right now."

While it’s a challenging environment, this source laments that Tedisco has nullified a major issue by taking a muddied stance on the stimulus, effectively endorsing it. "In Albany, the idea of spending government money to improve the economy is normal," he laments. "They live and breathe spending taxpayer money there."

"Obama is somewhat popular, and his policies are somewhat popular. [Scott Murphy, Tedisco's Democratic opponent] has run on Obama and he’s benefiting from the political environment. To win as a Republican, you need stark differences and Tedisco’s strategy seems to be to argue that there’s no real difference between the Democrat and Republican in this race. His thinking seems to be 'the district is more Republican than Democrat, so I'll win.’ But that is a bone-headed strategy, partially because the district is not as Republican as it used to be, and partially because blurring the differences demotivates the base."

03/16 10:11 AMShare