Monday, February 04, 2008

BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON

For Democrats, a Long, Tight Race to the Finish

You'll  notice that I'm not going through Super Tuesday state-by-state for the Democrats. Because all of the Democratic primaries and caucuses are proportional in one form or another, and there's only two candidates left (sorry, Gravel) that just about every state is going to come down in the neighborhood of Hillary 55 to 45 percent, Obama 55 to 45 percent.

(A couple of winner-take-all states would have added some real drama to tomorrow, and wrapped the race up further.)

In other words, the Democratic race goes on long after tomorrow. Suddenly, Democrats are going to have to pay close attention to primaries that never get much attention — Nebraska on Saturday, Maine on Sunday, the "Chesapeake Primary" a week from tomorrow (Maryland, Virginia, Washington D.C.)... Hawaii and Wisconsin the week after that.

Again, in most of these states, it's hard to see either one getting blown out. Obama will probably win much of the South, and Hillary will probably carry a lot of the rest. One of them will probably start inching ahead in the delegate count, bit by bit, contest by contest. I thought it would be Hillary winning in the end, but CNN is putting Obama ahead in a national poll with a huge surge.

02/04 12:22 PMShare