Wednesday, January 09, 2008

MITT ROMNEY, HORSERACE

Sorry, Hannity, I Maintain Michigan Is Make-or-Break For Romney

I’m a little irked at Sean Hannity, and I'm usually a big fan.

He’s hitting “conservative blogs” who are saying that Mitt Romney is finished if he doesn’t win Michigan. I don't know if he has this site in mind, but last night I wrote regarding Romney, “You're in tough shape, no two ways about it. But you're not dead. Michigan is huge; I think you have to win outright, otherwise you become the King of Silver Medals.”

Hannity thought arguments that Michigan might doom Romney were nonsensical. “I thought he was finished if he didn’t win Iowa.”

Well, yeah. If the financial numbers are accurate, Romney’s delegates that night cost him about a million dollars per delegate.

Michigan will be the third major test of Romney's skills as a candidate, and he's come up short in the first two. In Iowa, he led the polls, often by wide margins, from May to November. In New Hampshire, he led the polls, often by wide margins, from May to mid-December. In both states, his get-out-the-vote operations were, by all accounts, well-oiled machines. He dominated the airwaves in both states. By many accounts, he won the last debate in New Hampshire.

And he still couldn't win.

As Mark Steyn put it last night, "the consistency of Mitt's underperformance (the dogged candidate who comes in a reliable second wherever he runs) that should be deeply disconcerting to his supporters."

When you’re self-financing, you can buy yourself a lot of second chances. And yes, Romney is leading the delegate count. But is the plan to gather the most delegates by finishing in second place in enough states that award delegates proportionally?

Where's he going to win? I realize that after last night, we need to be cautious in putting our faith in polls, but for Romney, South Carolina's not looking that great. Mid-December polls put him in pretty tough shape in Florida, and the second-place finisher in that state walks away with nada*. He's nowhere in Pennsylvania. He's not set to win New Jersey. You figure Rudy walks away with winner-take-all New York and Connecticut. (Although maybe Lieberman could help McCain there.)

Massachusetts? Maine?

At some point, Mitt Romney's got to go out and win a hotly-contested state. Wyoming is nice, but it's not decisive. He's got to show that when you throw him into a hard-fought, no-quarter-given-or-asked political fight, he can come out on top.

* A memo from the Romney camp says this state awards its delegates, winner-take-all by congressional district. I've seen multiple media reports calling Florida winner-take-all, period, so I'm checking this...

UPDATE: Florida's delegates explained more here.

01/09 03:57 PMShare