Tuesday, November 03, 2009

HORSERACE

These Two Rumors Can't Possibly Be True, Can They?

I'm passing these two observations from liberal Virginia bloggers on to readers, but they're so out of line with expectations, I have a hard time buying them.

First, from Not Larry Sabato, about the Virginia delegate races: "SIX SEATS ARE GONE — ANOTHER NINE ARE IN PLAY FOR GOP PICKUP." Yesterday I predicted a GOP gain of six seats; I think most Virginia Republicans saw picking up 11 as their best-case scenario.

Then, from Blue Virginia:

I'm a bit skeptical of this, so take it with as big a grain of salt as you'd like, but it's from an excellent source. They got exit poll results from a precinct in Arlington that went 60%+ for Kaine in '05. With around 250 voters sampled over a 5-hour period this morning, McDonnell is up 22 points on Creigh Deeds. WTF? I mean, if that's even CLOSE to being true, it's horrible. Also, even if it gets better through the day, we're talking about possible margins in Arlington of less than 60% possible for Deeds. For comparison purposes, Tim Kaine got 74% of the vote in Arlington in 2005.

Are these two trying to motivate lethargic Democrats? Or is there really evidence of a building Republican wave in northern Virginia?

11/03 02:43 PMShare