Monday, November 09, 2009

HORSERACE

Big Anti-Incumbent Wave Coming in New York?

You can read too much into local races, but when you see s similar phenomenon across several communities in the region, they may reflect a coherent public mood. The AP notices that in New York, there were some interesting losses for incumbents this year.

Westchester County Executive Andy Spano, a Democrat, sought a fourth term and lost.

• New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, was shocked by a narrow win over a vastly outspent opponent.

• The only incumbent in the 23rd Congressional District dog fight, a five-term Republican assemblywoman, couldn't even finish the race.

• Republicans also seized majorities from Democrats in the legislatures in Dutchess, Nassau and Orange counties, while taking a majority in the Poughkeepsie Common Council.

Rising taxes, high unemployment, a lingering recession and politicians in charge to blame all of it on can do that.

“The public's in a bad mood,” Suozzi said Tuesday night.

Next year's election will be far more packed with incumbents, most of them bigger targets with bigger names and longer tenures, for voters to consider sending a message. Every New York state legislator, all statewide jobs including governor, 29 congressional seats and both U.S. Senate seats will be up for grabs.

Gov. David Paterson looks like he won't survive a Democratic primary; the man likely to beat him, Andrew Cuomo, has good approval ratings but would be a quasi-incumbent as the current state attorney general. It's hard to see a scenario where Chuck Schumer gets beaten, but Kirsten Gillibrand could be vulnerable to the right challenger (Pataki?).

And if the mood of New Yorkers is sour now, how will it look after more months with unemployment in the neighborhood of the current 8.9 percent?

The AP emphasizes that the mood is not anti-Democrat, but anti-incumbent. That point is rather moot when Democrats control so many offices in New York.

11/09 10:00 AMShare