Tuesday, February 12, 2008

MIKE HUCKABEE

A Tough Stretch Ahead for Mike Huckabee

The networks immediately call Maryland for McCain. (On the Democratic side, they immediately call it for Obama.)

With Maryland a rout, McCain winning the District and the Arizona senator over [or, since I first typed this, just under] 50 percent in Virginia, some skeptical eyes are going to turn to Mike Huckabee.

I've heard from campaign sources that Huckabee is expected to stick around until at least the Texas primary on March 4.

Let's go over my review from last week, which was almost instantly out of date once Romney departed the race...

Guam holds its GOP caucus on February 16. Even if Huckabee were to win there (and he has performed well in caucuses), they pick six delegates there.

A week from today, Washington state has its primary (which is for 19 of the state's delegates; 18 are through the convoluted, multi-step caucus process) and the Wisconsin primary, with 40 delegates.

Based on his second-place finish in the first step of the caucus process on Saturday, Huckabee might make some noise in Washington state. (Although keep in mind his second place was with 24 percent.) But in Wisconsin, the two most recent polls show McCain up by 21 or by 47.

American Samoa holds its caucus February 23, with another six delegates selected.

After that, it's Puerto Rico 's GOP caucus on February 24, with 20 delegates at stake.

Are any of those jumping out at you as natural Huckabee states or territories?

Finally, on March 4, Texas. The other states voting that day on the Republican side are Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

So after going 0 for 3 tonight, despite a valiant effort in Virginia, Huckabee is looking at probably no wins until Texas. (And I don't think I'd automatically give him a majority or plurality in the Lone Star State, either.)

We're going to hear a lot about how close tonight was, and Huckabee can have his head held high, but with 86 percent of precincts reporting, it's McCain 50 percent, Huckabee 41 percent. A nine percent margin isn't a rout, but it's not neck-and-neck, either.

It's a free country, and Huckabee can stay in as long as he likes. But I suspect the question, "what's the point?" is going to get steadily louder in the coming weeks...

UPDATE: It is floating around that it is now mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the nomination. That's not surprising; the point I wanted to make above was that I'm not sure there are even many places left for him to "make a splash" and pick up bunches of delegates, generate headlines, etc.

02/12 09:37 PMShare