Monday, November 02, 2009

HORSERACE

The Big Prediction Roundup: I'm Most Confident About the Very Last One

Some years, I have pretty good predictions (in 2004, Marshall Manson and I predicted every state right except Wisconsin) and some years, I have pretty lousy ones. My electoral map was lousy last year; I was wrong on North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Indiana, and said Pennsylvania would be a narrow Obama win. I got New Hampshire, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico right. Having said that, I did put the popular vote at 52-46-1, which was pretty darn close.

So, for this year...

CA-10: Democrat John Garamendi 54 percent; Republican David Harmer 45 percent. Throughout this district’s special election, I haven’t quite been able to predict a Republican win in this heavily-Democratic district. But something’s nagged at me about the brief and rare analyses of this race that I’ve read – they generally begin, ‘this is a heavily Democratic district,’ offer a bit of each candidate’s biography, then conclude, ‘well, this is a heavily Democratic district.’ In other words, few folks think Garamendi is giving the Democrats much reason to come out and support him, and the short bits of the Democratic candidate that I’ve seen suggest there’s something John Kerry-esque about him – stiff, awkward, old establishment, a couple quarts low on natural empathy. Meanwhile, most observers think Harmer’s run a tough, aggressive campaign. Will it be enough? Probably not, but I think Harmer shaves a lot off of the usual Democratic advantage. Democrats hold an 18-point advantage in voter registration in the district; Harmer can and could do better than cutting that in half.

NY-23: Conservative Doug Hoffman 53 percent; Democrat Bill Owens 42 percent, early, oblivious, and protest votes for Dede Scozzafava 5 percent. I can’t help but wonder whether the endorsement of Dede Scozzafava is really something you want in this race. Are there really that many voters who are intensely personally loyal to her in this race? Her campaign manager endorsed the Republican. Most of her remaining supporters were registered Republicans. Owens, despite getting help from the White House, etc., has had, in the past seven polls: 33, 35, 27, 29, 33, 36, 34. That’s strangely consistent, and that suggests that he’s had a lot of chances to say, “forget all that drama on the other side, I’m the guy who can represent this district best” and failed to close the deal. You figure Hoffman’s turnout effort will be churning.

VA-Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell 58 percent, Democrat Creigh Deeds 42 percent. Ordinarily, I’d want to give myself a little leeway, but I think the atmosphere around the Deeds campaign has been pretty funereal lately. (Today’s front page Washington Post story might as well be titled, ‘sour grapes.’) Take your pick on what broke the camel's back: bad debate appearances, a suggestion that he doesn’t support the public option, a very pro forma Obama appearance, the White House trashing his campaign to the Post, spending less on advertising the final week (McDonnell ads are everywhere), little or no positive message to close out his campaign. I think a lot of Democrats are irked with him, and that’s a bad thing when you’re trying to get people out to vote. A portion of the blame for his landslide defeat goes to Obama for governing much more liberally than he campaigned, but only a fraction; Deeds made plenty of mistakes on his own.

VA-Lieutenant Governor: Republican Bill Bolling 54 percent, Democrat Jody Wagner 46 percent: As noted earlier, this is the race where the Democrat is polling best, but that’s not the highest bar to clear. Bolling has had a few very minor problems in this race – he’s an incumbent, and frankly, Virginians don’t pay as much attention to the lieutenant governor’s race.

VA-Attorney General: Republican Ken Cuccinelli 56 percent, Democrat Steve Shannon 44 percent: Steve Shannon did his best to paint Cuccinelli as an out-of-the-mainstream conservative extremist, but in the end, he should have studied the office he sought.

VA  State Delegate Races: Republicans gain seven state assembly races: Comstock, LeMunyon, Garrett, Stolle, Villanueva, Clark, Morefield. Read about them here.

NJ Governor: Democrat Jon Corzine 44.6 percent, Republican Chris Christie 44.4 percent, Independent Chris Daggett 10 percent. This was the prediction you were waiting for, wasn’t it? It could very well go the other way; in fact, I can easily see Christie winning narrowly on Election Night. But then Corzine will dip into those absentee ballots where the signatures don’t match, and some friendly judge will rule that because of “dozens of people” on voting lines in Camden and Newark, polls have to be kept open until 3 a.m., and suddenly boxes of ballots from Republican precincts will go missing, etc. Many of my readers make compelling cases that the Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm will reduce their turnout to the point where the usual cheating can’t make up the difference, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that the Democrats will go quietly . New Jersey, as it is currently run, is Gotham City without Batman, and we know what happens to hard-charging prosecutors who try to clean up dirty systems. (Check out the illustration for this Star-Ledger story on the state's festering corruption.) I believe in Chris Christie. I just don’t believe in the rule of law in New Jersey, or in the capacity of Chris Daggett’s supporters to realize that a guy polling at 10 percent isn’t going to do anything but split the anti-incumbent vote.

New Jersey State Assembly races:  GOP picks up one seat. Hopes were higher earlier in the year, and there won’t be a Daggett effect in these races, but I just figure there won’t be a Christie effect carrying lower-ticket races, the way there will be in Virginia. (UPDATE: A reader notes that because two legistators are elected from each district, you're more likely to see two seats shift simultaneously.)

Other predictions: Bloomberg wins third term by a wide margin, declares himself mayor-for-life; Maine very narrowly rejects the new law that "lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages"; Washington state voters, by a wide margin, approve a referendum granting “state registered domestic partners in Washington all rights, responsibilities, and obligations granted by or imposed by state law on married couples”;  Republican John Lassiter narrowly beats Anthony Foxx in Charlotte's mayoral race; and finally, Yankees in 6, winning the World Series in front of the home crowd.

11/02 11:09 AMShare