Sunday, August 05, 2007

HORSERACE

Iowa Debate Wrapup

With Fred Thompson expected to enter the race next month, and the Ames straw poll next week, you’re going to see real pressure to start trimming the field in these debates. I can't imagine that too many people are happy with the current nine-soon-to-be-ten guys on stage format. Right now, I only want to see more of about half these guys.

 

First, George Stephanopolous was almost as bad as Chris Matthews, and that’s a high bar to clear. Steph was snippy, too obsessed with time and cutting off candidates. Almost all of his questions came from the mindset of a left-of-center guy trying to spotlight the Republicans’ flaws – first question was about abortion (yes, because that hasn’t been discussed), why don’t you agree with Grassley on S-CHIP, etc. I might find Tom Tancredo to be a waste of space, but I’m not running a debate; Steph is, and there’s no excuse for ignoring Tancredo for the first twenty minutes.

 

Yepsen was worse, almost indignant with a question to Rudy on taxes. Seriously, the Republicans deal with these axe-grinding fossils and Clintonite hacks and the Democrats can’t deal with Fox News? Cowboy up, you spineless weenies, Brit Hume isn’t going to bite you.

 

By the way – slight loss for Fred Thompson. It would have been good to see him out there, to compare and contrast with the other candidates, and to see what he would say on some of these issues – does he think the cutoff income for S-chip is too high? (It is, at least in some states.) What does he think of the Minnesota bridge collapse, and questions about infrastructure funding? Etc. I realize we’ll see him in a debate sometime in September, probably, but for now, his absence weakens both him and the debate – since they don’t seem “real” until he’s in it.

 

Of the strongest performers, I’ll give a slight edge to Romney, but my general vibe coming out of this is similar to the other ones – Republicans have a clear first tier, and each time, they demonstrate why they’re in it.

 

Romney’s line about Obama “going from Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove in the span of the week” will be the soundbite of the day. Romney knows how to land a punch, and he’s clearly decided to lay off McCain or any other potential future ally. (I guess when you’re leading, as he is in Iowa, you just need to focus on keeping your supporters.)

 

Rudy is a strikingly strong candidate in these forums, and anybody who thought that this New York mayor couldn’t play in Iowa, or on a stage surrounded by a bunch of down-the-line social conservatives, has egg on their face. He knows how to hit conservatives erogenous zones – emphasizing Democrats’ refusal to use the words “Islamist terrorists,” hitting Yepsen for his question’s inherent premise that the answer to a infrastructure problem is higher taxes, etc. I think his combativeness and humor will play well. We’ll see if that has any impact on the Ames straw poll attendees.

 

McCain seemed a little… quieter than usual? Serene, almost? The line about the vice president’s duties was funny. Concurring with Kathryn’s take, McCain has shifted from King Leonidas (“to the gates of hell!) to elder statesman. I liked the earlier version better, but I guess this probably suits McCain well.

 

Beyond those big three, the other standouts were, again, Huckabee (great little anecdote about who he considered his “boss” in Arkansas) and Hunter (a shame this guy can’t make a peep in any poll).

 

Brownback had one or two better moments, but the debate started out on a tough note, citing his robo-call and his attack on Romney. Iowa Democrats are violently allergic to negative attacks; I suspect the Republicans aren’t that eager to see their candidates tearing each other down this early. (That’s the mainstream media’s job anyway.) He had to make a splash, and I don’t think he did.

 

Tancredo: Actually, nuking Mecca aside, this was one of his best performances. If he wasn’t Congressman-I-Will-Burn-Amnesty-Supporters-At-The-Stake, his small-government answers wouldn’t sound all that different from the rest of the field. Having said that, it’s tough to see justifying him in these additional debates.

 

Ron Paul: Actually, he too was better than usual, other than sticking the word “Neocon” into every answer. And to ensure I get my regularly-scheduled batch of mail declaring me "not a real conservative," let me declare again he’s still not going to win, Ronpaulites.

 

Tommy Thompson: Pack it up. Go home. Consider a Senate run in Wisconsin or something. If this Thompson stays in future debates, I may plan my bathroom breaks during his answers, since nothing he says stands out… ever.

08/05 12:34 PMShare