The Revised Outlook for Super Tuesday

Monday, February 04, 2008

Last week I went through the states and the delegates on the GOP side, and came up with results that didn’t look quite so dire for Mitt Romney: McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.

But a quite a bit has changed in the polling numbers since then, and so we need to look through these again. On a state-by-state basis, alphabetically, with revised delegate projection at the end...

Alaska: (29 delegates) To the extent that anybody is paying attention to the land up north, the story is Ron Paul. There's this fascinating nugget from the Wall Street Journal: "Mr. Paul now has eight full-time staffers in the state, more than he had in Michigan, Florida or South Carolina."

Arizona: (53 delegates, winner take all) McCain.

Arkansas: (34 delegates, allocated by district and who wins statewide) Huckabee, obviously. A candidate receiving 10 percent of the statewide vote gets one delegate.

Alabama: (48 delegates, mixed, somewhat proportional) Before I had in the Huckabee pile, but the four most recent polls show McCain winning. Put more in McCain's pile than Huckabee's.

California: (173 delegates, divided by congressional district) This state will remain "an insane dogfight," as I put it last week. It's good news for Romney that the polls since February began put it a much closer race, and one puts Romney up by 8 (Zogby, though). A week ago, I expected, "McCain should walk away with at least a healthy plurality, if not a majority of California's delegates." Maybe it's closer. In light of the results in other states, though, I'm not sure it will be enough for Romney. Read on.

Colorado: (46 delegates) I'm surprised we're not getting more polling here. I'll keep this one in Romney's pile.

Connecticut: (30 delegates, winner take all) Put it in McCain's pile.

Delaware: (18 delegates, winner take all) No recent polls. I said last week, "a lot of folks figured this was Giuliani territory, but I found one poll giving it to Romney."

Georgia: (72 delegates, winner take all 3 delegates for each of 13 congressional districts won, and 30 to the statewide winner.) Most folks have been giving it to Huckabee, and polls concurred until recently; now they're showing McCain up, with Romney and Huckabee close behind. This one could split much closer than my earlier estimate.

Illinois: (70 delegates, based more or less by district) Another big state with not much polling. The ones done at the end of last week put McCain up, so we'll give him the win and the largest share of delegates.

Massachusetts: (41 delegates) It's proportional with a 15 percent threshold, and so Romney should get two thirds or so, and McCain should get about one third or so.

Missouri: (58 delegates) is winner-take-all. Every recent poll has McCain up, sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot. That's "big mo" in big MO.

Minnesota: (40 delegates, a hopelessly complicated caucus system) There's been one recent poll, by Minnesota Public Radio, that puts McCain up big. Tiny sample, though.

Montana: (25 delegates). Has no recent polls. Hugh Hewitt put it in Romney's pile, and if Romney's run strong anywhere so far, it's been the west. Even though it's a caucus, it's effectively winner take all.

New Jersey: (52 delegates, winner take all) Polls put McCain up big.

New York: (101 delegates, winner take all) Same story here. I wonder if Team Mitt had targeted the big three New York City metro area states earlier, Romney might have gained some traction...

North Dakota: (26 delegates, winner take all if he gets more than two thirds, otherwise proportionally). Last week, I could not find any polls for North Dakota. Mitt Romney won a straw poll out there with 29 percent. I'll put it in his pile.

Oklahoma: (41 delegates, some to who wins each district, some to who wins statewide) The two most recent polls puts McCain up; before that it was Huckabee. McCain will probably get the biggest slice of the electorate (and delegates), and Huckabee and Romney will have smaller slices, roughly the same size.

Tennessee: (55 delegates, winner takes all if they hit 50 percent, otherwise based on who wins each district and 13 to who wins statewide): A January poll had Thompson in first place, but Huckabee well ahead of McCain and Romney. Now the last two polls put McCain in first place, and either Huckabee or Romney not far behind.

Utah: (36 delegates): No polling here, but the expectation is Romney all the way, winner take all.

West Virginia: (30 delegates, but only 9 on primary day, 3 per congressional district): No recent polls; the only poll I could find was from nearly a year ago. For what it's worth, it put McCain way ahead of Romney or Huckabee, but in March of last year, few had heard of those guys. I hear Ron Paul's folks are active here.

In the Romney pile, I've dramatically increased his California numbers, presuming the recent polls are showing a swing to him in the closing days. But some of his biggest wins are proportional (Massachusetts, Colorado) and his best winner-take-all states are too small (Delaware, Utah).

Before I put Romney at about 200 to 250 delegates. Because I've revised his California total upward, I've now got him a little past 300 delegates.

In the Huckabee pile, I had previously given him wins in the South. Now I've got him taking second in most of those states; the only outright win I still have him at is Arkansas. Third place will get him a few here and a few there, but he's lost ground.By my count, this leaves him at about 125 delegates.

In the McCain pile, he keeps all of his big winner-take-all states (Arizona, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut) and while I'm taking some out of his previous total in California, he's doing much better in the South (Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee). In this count, the polls hold, and he wins the winner-take-all battleground of Missouri. In addition, he should get the most delegates out of Illinois, Minnesota, and Oklahoma.

Before I put McCain somewhere north of 400 delegates; now I'm calculating out to 500 and change.

I'd give Ron Paul a majority of Alaska's 29 delegates, and a few here, a few there in states without the 15 percent threshold. He may break 50 delegates for the day.

That would put things at about McCain at 600+ total delegates, (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney a bit under 400 total delegates, Huckabee at 150 delegates or so.

Under this scenario, the race won't be over, but McCain will have a clear lead, and time will be running low for Romney to close the gap.

02/04 10:07 AM Share