Wednesday, January 16, 2008

MIKE HUCKABEE

Is Huckabee's Appeal Regionally Limited?

I realize some readers won't have a taste for Hugh's gloating, but he raises a good point... why did Mike Huckabee get only 16 percent in Michigan? (CNN projects him getting a single delegate out of the state.)

It seems clear that at one point, Michigan Republicans were at least open to the idea of voting for him. Looking at recent polls, we see a little more than a week ago, Rossman Group had him leading the state by a point. Rasmussen had him leading by a point in early December. Yes, he was in single digits in October, you figure that Iowa win had to put him on a lot of folks' radar screens as a credible choice.

But since New Hampshire went for McCain, Huckabee bounced between 12 percent and 19 percent in Michigan polls. I realize Michigan isn't tailor-made for Huckabee, but it's got some evangelicals, plenty of gun owners and hunters, plenty of homeschoolers... this wasn't exactly arid territory for Huck the way New Hampshire was. And he finished pretty much where he did in the Granite State.

Now, Huckabee's still sitting in good shape in South Carolina, and he's spent more time there. But I think the question he faces - and that all of the candidates face, at this point - is can he win outside his own comfort zone? Can a Southerner place pretty well in a northern state? Can a guy from the Northeast like Romney or Giuliani win someplace out west or in the south? (Romney winning a modestly-contestd Wyoming is nice but not quite a dramatic example.) Do these guys, who have been able to pitch themselves as just right for the hotly-contested state du jour, have the ability to win on a broad basis on Super Duper Tuesday? 

01/16 11:24 AMShare