Tuesday, January 29, 2008

HILLARY CLINTON

Why Bill Clinton's Going To Illinois

Earlier today, I wrote, regarding Bill Clinton doing a campaign event in Edwardsville, Illinois, "Illinois is an unusual pick, as Obama's home state would seem to be too much of an uphill climb to put much resources in, but then again, maybe Team Hillary sees something the rest of us don't."

Campaign Spot reader Ted in Chicago writes, "A Bill Clinton visit to Southern Illinois makes perfect sense given Illinois' internal political geography.  Any outsider could make the mistake of projecting their familiarity with Chicago/Cook County Democracy onto the rest of the state.  Up North, Chicago, Cook County, and collar county Democrats (blue collars, yuppie progressives, urban minorities) are obvious Obama constituencies...
 
But Southern Illinois is its own animal and a bastion for Democrats of a very different stripe... In the Democratic Senate primary, Obama did not do all that well down there, and in the general election, Alan Keyes managed to carry a handful of the most conservative counties. So Illinois may show up on the map as a Blue State, but there is an undeniable North/South Democratic faultline.  Looks like the Clintons recognize it and hope to exploit it.

Still, you have to figure that the pro-Obama vote coming out of Chicago is going to be enormous. If Obama could maximize turnout in places like Iowa and South Carolina, then Illinois should be extremely fertile ground.

But an Illinois-focused blogger notes:

FYI – Edwardsville, IL is in the St. Louis media market, where Hillary has been airing TV commercials.  It may be designed with an eye towards Missouri’s Primary, and/or Hillary may think she can win delegates in the two metro-east congressional districts in Illinois.  (Illinois votes for delegates by direct election in each Congressional district.  The statewide vote totals for the actual presidential candidates are a meaningless beauty contest.  The only votes that matter are the direct votes for the pledged delegate candidates in each CD, FWLIW.)

That makes a bit more sense.

01/29 02:42 PMShare