Wednesday, November 28, 2007

HORSERACE

It Was One of the Worst Debates. McCain Won It, For What It's Worth.

Not the best debate. One of the worst, actually. Based on the tone and answers given tonight, you would think that the Republican Party seethes with a blistering resentment of immigrants, with only the briefest of pauses to distinguish between those who are illegal and legal. You would think that the only tax plan that they like is the Fair Tax, and that they would like to somehow eliminate all taxes and let somebody else figure out how to fund the parts of the government that are actually needed. Guys, I thought we were small-government conservatives, not no-government anarchists.

I don’t think the early exchange between Romney and Giuliani on sanctuary cities came out well for either one of them. I mean, opening by slamming Romney for having a “sanctuary mansion” – why not just walk across the stage and knee him in the crotch? (I see the darling Campbell Brown agrees with me in the postgame show. Campbell, call me. Let’s chat.)

The candidates seemed prickly, on edge, eager to go on the attack… the questions ranged from the pedestrian to the flat out bad, and the opening song, which was supposed to be funny, only confirmed everybody’s worst fear that the YouTube factor was going to bring an element of American Idol’s open auditions to this night. Like I said earlier, there’s room for this wackiness in midsummer, when we’re six months out and the race could use a change of pace. But this is crunch time, and having questions and introductions from attention-starved wannabe entertainers just enhanced the sense that this format can devolve into a colossal waste of time.

Similarly, Thompson gets 30 seconds of free time, and uses all of it to showcase quotes from Romney and Huckabee? I just don’t think it reflected well on him.

Win: John McCain. Seemed to be front and center throughout the night. I agree with Thompson on the immigration policy proposals, but disdain any nativist tone, the kind that drips from every pore of Tancredo. McCain spoke like a grownup during that segment, as well as the discussion on interrogation/torture. As I said earlier, in a noisy room, he dominated by speaking softly. Ron Paul wanted to be taken seriously, and tonight McCain took him seriously by head-butting him on the Iraq war.

Place: Mike Huckabee. I don’t necessarily like how his candidacy is turning into a litmus test for the strength of social conservatives versus fiscal conservatives. But time and again, he’s the smoothest, funniest, most natural campaigner on the stage, and that goes a long way. He saved the rest of the field on the question about whether they believe every word of the Bible, and had the line on the night, saying Jesus was too smart to run for office.

Show: Rudy Giuliani. Like I said, I didn’t like the starting exchange with Romney. Rudy’s kept his temper and his aggressive style in check until maybe tonight, and maybe a few times tonight he came across a little too “hot”, a little too angry. (You know, that drive that led to the weasel exchange back when he was mayor.)  There was a lot of crosstalk during his arguments with other candidates; when that happens, neither guy looks good. But as the night wore on, he got back to his strengths.

Troubled night: Romney. The knives were out for him from the starting gun, which might as well have been metaphorically aimed at his head. I don’t think he came out the better on the clash with McCain on interrogation, and while the “sanctuary mansion” was a below-the-belt shot, it's going to be remembered and repeated. The gays-in-the-military answer looks like yet another flip-flop. He didn’t fall apart under this barrage, but every major candidate on that stage wants Romney knocked out first, and so he’s got a big bulls-eye on his back from here on out. Easy to see his negatives rising week by week if every debate offers an extensive retrospective of his every flaw and position change.

Another troubled night: Did Ron Paul really refer to the Trilateral Commission? Sorry, talk like that won’t expand his base of support. For every guy who is up to speed on conspiracy theories and finds them plausible, two voters start thinking of the cigarette-smoking man from the X-Files. I was ready to give him a second look; didn’t win me over tonight.

Just got an e-mail from one of his charming supporters: "PAUL WASN'T EVEN CLOSE TO BLAMING AMERICA YOU STUPID IGNORANT SOCIALIST LOVING CONSTITUTION HATING DUMB***. PULL YOUR HEAD OUT... **** FOR BRAINS!!!" Well, that persuaded me.

Where the hell did he go? Fred Thompson. Just faded away tonight. On a crowded stage, this guy needs more time, because he’s not doing nearly enough with the bits and pieces he’s getting now.

Go home: Goodbye, Duncan Hunter, I liked you.

Goodbye, Tom Tancredo. Just go.

The "undecided" voter that CNN just interviewed said that she preferred John Edwards, and that she didn't like Fred Thompson's television shows. Where do they find these people?

11/28 10:36 PMShare