Wednesday, October 28, 2009

HORSERACE, BARACK OBAMA, JOHN MCCAIN

Remembering Some Recent New Jersey Polling History

A dedicated reader notices that the final Quinnipiac poll of 2008 in New Jersey showed "a huge Democratic landslide in New Jersey, Sen. Barack Obama tops Republican Sen. John McCain 59 - 36 percent while incumbent Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 55 - 33 percent among likely voters."

Obama beat McCain 57.27 percent to 41.7 percent; Obama's total of the final vote was 2 points lower than Q's final number and McCain's total was almost 6 points higher than Quinnipiac's final number.

In the Senate race. Lautenberg won, 55.53 percent to 42.49 percent. Lautenberg was just above Quinnipiac's final number, but Zimmer was almost 10 points ahead of Quinnipiac's final number.

In both races, the Democrat's margin ended up being significantly smaller than the final poll indicated. Quinnipiac's reputation is good, but it's something to keep in mind regarding today's numbers.

10/28 02:35 PMShare