Tuesday, January 08, 2008

HORSERACE, MITT ROMNEY, FRED THOMPSON, MIKE HUCKABEE

Meanwhile, In South Carolina...

I've got a couple of items to update about South Carolina.

First, Rasmussen puts the former Arkansas governor up big: Mike Huckabee 28, John McCain 21, Mitt Romney 15, Fred Thompson 11. 

Second, after chatting with one of the Thompson Associates, I hear Thompson is going to announce a move that says he's all in at this point. (Or doubling down; pick whether you prefer poker or blackjack metaphors.) The bottom line is, Thompson and the people around him know that South Carolina is a must-win. Mitt Romney may look very damaged by the time South Carolina votes, however, and Team Fred thinks they're a likely first choice for Romney fans losing faith in their man. (Would Mitt fans go to "Don't Mormons believe Jesus and Satan are brothers" Huckabee or "You are the candidate of change" McCain?)

Also, expect Thompson to spend an enormous amount of time laying out all the ways that Huckabee is not an across-the-board conservative. Thompson's people believe the ball is bouncing his way, as he'll soon be able to make the case he's the only remaining candidate who can rally all wings of the Republican coalition.

Then this report from Campaign Spot Senior South Carolina Correspondent, a.k.a. Dad...

Greenville Republicans trusted their leaders when they endorsed Bush in 2000 — and the locals feel disappointed in the 43rd President, not consistently conservative enough for their tastes. Now their leaders are talking up Huckabee, but Ron Paul is actually generating the buzz there.

The word among Palmetto State Democrats was that African-Americans in the state - the most dominant demographic in that state's Democratic primary - wanted to see Obama win before they got their hopes up. Well, they got a big win in Iowa, and appear poised for another big win tonight in New Hampshire. Expect to see a big, dramatic shift to Obama in that state in the coming weeks.

At the First Monday club, a group of Hilton Head Island Republicans who have been kind enough to invite me to speak in the past, about ten folks said they had found their candidate, but four to five times that number said they were still undecided. No straw polls were taken, as First Monday organizers didn't want to see blood on the floor.

UPDATE: "Thompson is going to announce a move that says he's all in at this point." Here's the move:

Choosing to make his "stand" in South Carolina, Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson will move about a dozen campaign staffers to the state in advance of its January 19th primary.

The staff will move from the Thompson campaign's McLean, Virginia headquarters.

Additionally, the former Tennessee Senator's campaign employees — save a handful of junior staffers — will face pay cuts.

01/08 04:37 PMShare