Tuesday, November 03, 2009

HORSERACE

Low Turnout in Newark? This Could Be Big

I've been hearing quite a bit of anecdotal evidence in the vein of this message.

Thought I'd chime in. I've been working in Newark (biggest city in NJ, dem stronghold) for the past 3 days, making calls, putting up signs, etc. The biggest thing going on today is no one here is going to the polls. In one polling place 49 votes were cast by 11 am, in contrast, at the same time last year, there were 378 votes cast. Unless people come out of the wood works in Newark, Christie may win this by 2-3 points regardless of Daggett. Speaking of Daggett, in my home county (Morris, Christie's base) Daggeett was the LAST name on the ballot, all the way to the right. I concur with your reader who eariler stated that he was not worried about him any more. 

If this description of low turnout is consistent all over the state, it's a huge deal. But it's still relatively early in the day; the late save-Corzine's-tush push will go full speed in late afternoon and evening.

I want to see or hear about a more comprehensive survey of New Jersey polling places, but if these little anecdotes are correct, all of the late efforts for Corzine may be futile; New Jerseyans, having seen what he's done, just can't bring themselves to vote for four more years of the same.

PolitickerNJ is hearing similar numbers:

Overall turnout in New Jersey's largest city is hovering near 30 percent of where it was last year when Barack Obama ultimately racked over 77,112 votes, according to Democratic Party sources on the ground.

Around midmorning, I heard a strikingly low percentage for projected statewide turnout. Politico quoted Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray: "If turnout dips below 47 percent, it’s minorities not showing up."

What I heard was pretty well below that threshold, but I want to hear it from a few others before I throw it out there . . .

11/03 01:26 PMShare