Thursday, December 13, 2007

RON PAUL, MIKE HUCKABEE

Huck Leads in South Carolina, But Look Where Paul Is

Another way to look at these CNN numbers in South Carolina, reported on Drudge: Ron Paul is six percent away from second place.

Huckabee 24%
Thompson 17%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Paul 11%

This is good news for Huckabee, obviously. A co-blogger at another site thinks that Huckabee is peaking too early, that he's now a target for the other candidates, and that a lot of the not-so-great parts of his record are going to get a lot of attention between now and early January. After that scrutiny, he'll fall back to earth.

Maybe. But I think there's a lot of truth in this analysis by Patrick Ruffini:

GOP primary voters feel passionately about two things: values and the war. Huckabee has cornered the market on the first. His success is not about ideology, but identity. For his voters, he’s a Christian first, and a conservative second. Attacking him on conventional conservative issues won’t undermine his core support because it has nothing to do with being a conservative.

I think that the folks shifting to Huckabee are establishing a gut-level connection, "he's my guy. He gets my values." And I don't know whether Wayne Dumond, or the number of pardons, or in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, or the Cuba embargo or even increasing tax burdens — or any of the stuff in Fred's "apology" — will break that gut-level connection.

12/13 09:42 PMShare