Saturday, August 11, 2007

HORSERACE

Straw Polls and Preseason Games

It seems appropriate that the Ames straw poll occurs as NFL preseason starts, as the two seem quite comparable: They don't really count for anything, but those within the political world/sport watch them closely to measure the "blocking and tackling" and to see who's looking good before the real contests start. For diehard junkies who haven't seen any real action for a long while, they're exciting, or at least worth watching. You want to avoid any key mistakes. You want to hide your cards a little. You want to avoid injuries. (Okay, maybe that's more football.)

Sometimes people interpret success in them as an omen of success when the real contests start, but that record is spotty - George H. W. Bush beating Reagan in 1979, Pat Robertson winning in 1987, Phil Gramm tying Bob Dole in 1995. But just as few Super Bowl winners do badly in the preseason, you want to at least perform fairly well - a poor performance rarely is a signal of future success.

I note last night the Atlanta Falcons fell short against the New York Jets. A key lesson here for Atlanta, one that you think one of their players would be familiar with: It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

08/11 11:48 AMShare