Friday, November 06, 2009

HORSERACE, BARACK OBAMA

Barack Obama's Campaign Trail Uselessness, by the Numbers

Votes for Democrat Jon Corzine in Newark, New Jersey, in 2005: 39,573.

Votes for Corzine in Newark in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: 35,669.

Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2005: 76,955.

Votes for Jon Corzine in Camden County in 2009, two days after Obama hosted a rally for him there: 66,996.

Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tim Kaine in Norfolk in 2005: 27,791.

Votes for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in Norfolk in 2009, roughly a week after Obama hosted a rally for him: 24,004.

Never mind that Obama couldn't get Corzine and Deeds over the top; he couldn't ensure that they did as well as they or other Democrats did in the same races for the same offices four years ago, in the heavily Democratic cities he appeared in.

There's a valuable lesson for vulnerable Democrats sweating their votes on the health-care bill. If you vote yes, you will probably outrage right-leaning voters in your district, and many independents will fear you've made things worse.

But sometime between now and Election Day 2010, President Obama will come to the biggest city in your district and hold a big rally. Thousands will turn out, you will dominate the news cycle, and it will be the best day of your campaign.

And then, in all likelihood, you will lose, because everyone in that crowd of thousands was going to vote for you anyway, and what you won't see are the tens of thousands who didn't show up because they don't care that President Obama thinks you deserve to be reelected.

11/06 01:25 PMShare