Gallup: McCain is Down 8! Or He's Up 10 in a Month! We're Not Sure!

Monday, July 28, 2008

Periodically, some readers will write in and demand that I call readers' attention to a particular poll demonstrating that the race is over.

The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up, 48 percent to 40 percent. Bounce! Surge! Here comes the Obama tsunami!

But Gallup's latest non-tracking poll out today:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

But that poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, which would have been after the Germany speech and presumably included some of the Berlin bounce, Maliki comments, etc. And my sense was that weekend polls generally were worse for Republican candidates.

So McCain is either trailing like he's never trailed before, or he's gained 10 points in the past month to retake the lead. This is one of the reasons I'm writing less about swings in the polls.

07/28 03:40 PM Share