Tuesday, October 27, 2009

HORSERACE

Can Garamendi Appeal to the 'California Moderates' in the 10th District?

Campaign Spot reader Jake sends in these thoughts on California's special election:

Back in 1997, I wrote my bachelor's thesis on the race where [the previous occupant of this House seat Ellen] Tauscher beat [Republican] Bill Baker. The lines have changed, but the areas on which I drew my conclusions are largely intact.

Tauscher appealed to the "California moderates" in the district. They are willing to vote GOP if the issues are taxes and values, less so if the environment and guns come up. There are strong GOP-leaning organizations. Parts of the district rely on Sacramento vs. San Francisco media. Sacramento media tend to be more plugged in than the rest of the state to state politics. The coverage in the valley is lousy for state government these days. Many of the cities in the district have conservative mayors, some with several terms.

Garamendi was planning a run for governor, but also looking a challenge to [Rep. Dan] Lungren, whose congressional district is more in line with Garamendi's roots. My Dem friends think that the party is tired of John and Patti Garamendi, and upset that he blocked rising stars Senator Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan from the seat. They think he'll get little help because the seat can be won back in a year or through the remapping in 2012.

I have a feeling David Harmer, the Republican candidate in the district, will cross those bridges when he comes to them . . .

10/27 04:46 PMShare