Monday, May 05, 2008

HORSERACE

Why Tomorrow Looms Huge

Bloomberg's Al Hunt gets his hands on an Obama strategy memo, written after Super Tuesday, and forecasting the outcomes of all of the subsequent primaries.

Hunt says that chief delegate hunter Jeff Berman and his team have been "almost dead-on" in forecasting which candidate would win each state and in delegate counts. But they underestimated how much they would lose Pennsylvania, thinking Obama would lose by about 5 points. They expected to lose Scranton and Wilkes- Barre, "by about 10 points. Instead they were defeated by better than 2-to-1."

et statewide he was defeated by almost double the 5-point loss his strategists envisioned in February. That was due to the huge margins Clinton rolled up in white working-class districts. In the former mining and textile regions of northeastern Pennsylvania, places like Scranton and Wilkes- Barre, they expected to lose by about 10 points. Instead they were defeated by better than 2-to-1. In John Murtha's hometown, they lost not by 8 points but by 46 percent.

While appearing to blame the voters, Hunt makes a strange concession about Obama's recent campaigning: "There may have been some element of racism among these culturally conservative voters, who support Democrats if they think the politician is strong and empathetic toward their struggles; Obama appeared neither."

Tomorrow could actually determine quite a bit. If Obama wins both, lots of superdelegates will jump on board, and you'll see new pressure on Hillary to leave the race, i.e., "if Hillary can't beat him in Indiana, where can she beat him?" If Hillary wins both, the good ship Obama is listing and taking on water. If it's a split, the most likely scenario, then it's another Groundhog Day, where we get another six weeks of campaigning.

(Actually, here's why Obama really can't afford two losses tomorrow. Next week, he's probably going to lose West Virginia by 20-30 points. The following week he's probably going to lose Kentucky by 20-30 points. Demographically, those states are similar to western and central Pennsylvania. If he thinks his press is bad now, wait until he's gone 0-for-7 in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky. And to be honest, 1-for-7 won't be that much better.)

05/05 10:26 AMShare