Sunday, November 01, 2009

HORSERACE

The Potential Reverberations From NY-23 Get Larger: Hoffman by 15?

Dede Scozzafava, the "Republican" who withdrew from New York's special House election, has endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.

From where Scozzafava stands, this move makes absolute sense. Clearly, she's not that much of a conservative, and on a lot of issues, her views line up with that of the Democratic nominee. If Hoffman wins, she doesn't lose much; it's not like she had a bright future in Republican politics she was throwing away. Her last-minute withdrawal seemed more easily explained by fear of a humiliating defeat than concern that a Democrat might win a previously Republican-held set.

If Owens wins, she can gloat. She can say that the Republicans lost a seat because they were too finicky; she'll be the latest Arlen Specter, Jim Jeffords, Lincoln Chafee, Jim Leach - a figure with an R after their name, now supporting the Democrats, and now praised by so many for being sensible and bipartisan and putting partisan loyalties aside, etc.

We will see what scenario unfolds. In the meantime... Heck of a job, Newt. And there's a million in NRCC and RNC funding well-spent.

Having said all that, a Conservative party candidate eking out a plurality in a three-way race is one thing. A Conservative candidate winning head-to-head against a Democrat, with the endorsement of the Republican... well, the potential reverberations from this potential earthquake just got even bigger.

For what it's worth, PPP puts Hoffman ahead of Owens by 15 percentage points. But it doesn't mean anything until real ballots get cast...

11/01 06:36 PMShare