Wednesday, November 04, 2009

HORSERACE

Did Anyone Ask Upstate New Yorkers if They Wanted Their Race Nationalized?

So in a year where New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg wins by a small margin while spending more than ever, where Republicans win Virginia by their best margin ever, and where the Republicans have their best New Jersey governor's race since 1985 . . . how did the Conservative candidate come up short in New York 23?

Well, perhaps Hoffman's botching of an interview with the Watertown Daily Times editorial board should have been a red flag.

We junkies of national politics overlook local issues way too easily.

No one ever really asked the voters of this district whether they wanted their House race to be a national fight. I'm slated to appear on Fred Thompson's radio program today, and I'm a fan of him, and Sarah Palin, and all of the other big-name conservatives who jumped in to beat the drum for Hoffman. But maybe the locals wanted more than criticism of Obama and Pelosi and spending. Maybe the fact that he lived on the other side of the district line rankled with them.

Even his staunchest supporters called him "soft-spoken"; maybe this was a signal that he lacked a bit in the personal charisma, reputation, name recognition, and other qualities that politicians usually bring. A lot of folks are in love with the concept of candidates who are not professional politicians, just regular folks, but in the end, campaigning is a skill that doesn't often come naturally. Maybe Hoffman could have used a bit of practice before jumping into a high-stakes race.

Winning 46 percent of the vote, and coming 4,000 or so votes short, is nothing to be ashamed of. But there are primaries for a reason. In less than a year, Doug Hoffman will have his chance to win a Conservative and/or Republican nomination the old-fashioned way.

UPDATE: In contrast to the GOP victories in Virginia and New Jersey, it suggests that the mission for the Tea Party crowd is going to be a little tougher than it looked a few days ago. It's not impossible; clearly, the atmosphere is not 2008, and Republicans can win in areas where they haven't been competitive in years (Middlesex County, New Jersey; Fairfax County, Virginia). But it takes more than ads from the Club for Growth and a Palin Facebook endorsement and a lot of praise from bloggers and a lot of denouncing high spending and Nancy Pelosi. All of those things can take you part of the way, but it takes more to put a candidate over the top.

Or maybe special House elections are just wacky.

ANOTHER UPDATE: A couple readers are construing this post as pro-Scozzafava, which it isn't my aim.

My point is that there are a lot of voters in this district who don't care much about the opinions of Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Dick Armey, you, me, etc. They care about widening the St. Lawrence Seaway, redevelopment around Plattsburgh Air Force Base, highway plans between Watertown and Plattsburgh, etc. — stuff that you and I have no or little opinion and little knowledge about. In retrospect, it looks a little embarrassing to look back and read Dick Armey dismissing "regional concerns as 'parochial' issues that would not determine the outcome of the election."

A better Conservative candidate would have been fluent in both local and national issues.

11/04 09:23 AMShare