If SurveyUSA Is On Target, We're Seeing a Dramatic Shift

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

After seeing the Survey USA poll showing Hillary within 5 percent of Obama in North Carolina, I decided to go back to see how that firm had done in recent Democratic contests.

In Pennsylvania, Survey USA's last poll had Hillary 50, Obama 44. The final numbers in the Keystone State were 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

In Ohio, Survey USA's last poll had it Hillary 54, Obama 44. That almost nailed it, as the final numbers there were 54.2 percent to 44.1 percent.

In Texas, Survey USA's last poll had Obama ahead, 49 to 48. Hillary won that state, but it was indeed close, 50.9 percent to 47.4 percent. They had Hillary two points too low, and Obama about 1.5 percent too high.

So while Survey USA is the only one putting North Carolina in single digits, their track record lately suggests we shouldn't expect them to be too far off the final results. Also note that Survey USA puts Hillary ahead in Indiana by 9 percent.

04/29 03:45 PM Share