Looking Closely at New Jersey's Poll Numbers

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

I realize the conventional wisdom on New Jersey's governor's race is that Republican Chris Christie is blowing it. And no doubt about it, the race is tight and Christie's numbers have tumbled as more and more attack ads have aired.

But take a look at Corzine's percentage share of the vote in the past six polls: 39, 41, 39, 40, 39, 40. Strikingly consistent.

The undecideds in those polls are percentages of 7, 5, 3, 6, 8, 5. Not too many undecided voters left, and while the old "undecideds break against the incumbent" rule of thumb has its exceptions, it's tough to see Corzine getting a large number of those folks.

But let's be generous and give Corzine three percentage points out of that 5.6 average. That gives him 42 to 44 percent of the vote.

Is it possible Jon Corzine can win with 44 percent of the vote, to say, Christie's 43? Yes, it's possible. If he gets 42 percent, it's possible Christie gets 41, but that requires Daggett to carry 17 percent, a level he's hit in only one poll all year. Again, possible, but not likely.

But another point to keep in mind is Corzine's favorability and job-approval ratings, which have been abysmal all year; his anti-Christie barrage has had no real effect. In the Monmouth poll, Corzine's favorable/unfavorable is 37/51; the favorable number has been between 37 and 41 for the last five polls and the negatives have been between 49 and 53 in those poll. In the Rasmussen poll, Corzine's at 43 favorable, 55 unfavorable. In the New York Times poll, 33 percent approve of the job Corzine's doing, 49 percent disapprove.

To win, Corzine needs Daggett to overperform, Christie to underperform, and himself to get a healthy chunk of the remaining undecideds in an electorate that doesn't like him or the job he's done.

Possible, but not likely.

10/20 10:05 AM Share