Wednesday, November 18, 2009

SARAH PALIN, BARACK OBAMA

Why Sarah Palin Will Think About Running for President in 2012

Three thoughts about Sarah Palin's future spurred by last night's appearance on Larry Kudlow . . .

1) While she's currently denying interest in running for president in 2012, the prospect may look more tempting in the not-too-distant future. What's more, she probably realizes that if she doesn't run, events will play out — a second term for Obama? President Romney/ Pawlenty/Daniels? — and she may find herself looking back and wondering how the campaign would have been different if she had run. Could she have beaten Obama? (Yes, I can hear you screaming how certain you are about the answer to that question.) Or if some other Republican wins in 2012, will she wonder whether she declined to run in a great year for Republicans, when backlash against the events of Obama's first term carried a more generic GOP candidate all the way to the top?

If she doesn't run, she may look back and regret it. If she runs, she will know, with absolute certainty, whether or not she could have won.

In light of this, and her instinctive rule-breaking, risk-taking nature (her maverick-ness!), wouldn't we expect her to dip her toe into the water and at least create an exploratory committee?

2) Barring some sudden turnaround in the economy, or President Obama suddenly announcing the capture of Osama bin Laden or some other unexpected event, 2010 will be a good Republican year, maybe a great one. In the coming year, Palin will almost certainly be out on the trail, appearing at fundraisers and rallies for GOP candidates.

If, by November 2010, she can declare that, say, 20 out of the 25 candidates she campaigned for went on to victory, wouldn't that make her more likely to think she could win a presidential race?

3) The first thing Palin skeptics point to is her current poll numbers — the number of Americans who think she's not qualified, has insufficent experience, who say they absolutely wouldn't vote for her, etc. Indeed, if the next presidential election were held in the coming year, she would lose, and probably lose badly.

But Americans are already changing their minds about the joys of a Democratic president and a heavily Democratic Congress. Americans aren't as high on Obama as they used to be, less confident in his ability to handle the economy and health care, not enthused about closing Guantanamo Bay, not all that eager to see KSM on trial in New York City, etc. In other words, events are forcing Americans to rethink the conclusions they drew in late 2008.

If they can reconsider Obama, there's no reason to think the public can't reconsider their early impressions of Palin.

11/18 08:00 AMShare