Thursday, May 01, 2008

HORSERACE

Gallup's Tracking Poll Shows 14 Point Shift Since April 21

Gallup's tracking poll is showing a pretty clear trend. From Obama being 10 points ahead of Hillary on April 21, to a tie on April 25, to a 49-45 lead for Hillary today.

In this instant-reaction era, it's easy to expect poll numbers to immediately reflect shifts of fortune and a candidate's bad day or bad week on the trail. But the actual results of Pennsylvania and the tracking polls remind us that it sometimes takes a bit of time for developments to be digested by the electorate...

(However, for what it's worth, Rasmussen sees a 10 point shift to Hillary since Wright's press conference.)

05/01 02:53 PMShare