Monday, April 07, 2008

JOHN MCCAIN

Many Reasons For Skepticism on McCain-Rice

Dan Senor, a Republican strategist (and former Romney adviser) says on ABC News that Condi Rice is "actively" courting John McCain, aiming to be his choice for Vice President.

(First question — Dan, no word of this scoop to Campbell Brown? The Mrs. doesn't get any help?)

Senor cites Rice's meeting with Grover Norquist's group of conservative leaders as evidence.

I'm a fan of Secretary Rice, but there are a lot of reasons to doubt we'll see her on the Republican ticket. One of my McCain guys, reacting to this story, noted that the senator and Rice have interacted cordially and professionally, but it's not like they're close personally. He said she was "not a name that comes up" when the idle chatter turns to running mates.

If McCain wanted a vice president with foreign policy experience (and it's not like it's a weak spot on the candidate), he could pick other figures that add a lot more electorally — Colin Powell, and Gen. David Petraeus, to name two.

Rice has relatively high approval ratings, which is a plus. I wouldn't expect her to single-handedly move much of the African-American vote, nor narrow the gender gap much. She doesn't seem likely to bring over any geographical areas or states, at least at first glance. She's never run for any elected office before.

As national security adviser and secretary of state, Rice worked hard and diligently, taking on Herculean challenges but with limited results. (Not necessarily her fault; you try getting the Palestinians to sign a peace deal with Israel when Hamas runs the Gaza Strip.) She's currently fourth in line to the presidency, and if some dire crisis were to eliminate the elected officials ahead of her, she seems certain to rise to the occasion. But it's hard to argue her three years and change running the State Department have been a cavalcade of shining successes.

Finally, she's been President Bush's right-hand woman for the past seven years and change. If the President's approval rating was at 60 percent, we would be having a different conversation. But when the President's approval rating is about 30 percent, and the incessant mantra of the election is "change", McCain probably won't want someone who's been associated with the foreign policy decisions in Washington for most of a decade.

Second, if this story is true (and you can tell I have my doubts)... doesn't it look a little unseemly for a Secretary of State to be angling for a position on the ticket? Doesn't she have a full plate as is?

I'm scheduled to talk about the Condi-as-veep talk, along with the Romney-as-veep talk, on Glenn Beck's program on CNN Headline News this evening. 

04/07 12:01 PMShare