Tuesday, October 27, 2009

HORSERACE

A Note of Caution About These Polls Showing Hoffman Up

Permit me to throw a bit of cold water on the latest poll showing Conservative Doug Hoffman up 5 in New York's special House election. The sample size is 366, putting the margin of error somewhere between 5 and 6 percent. In addition, I have a feeling that getting a good reading on turnout in a special election in a spread-out district is tougher than usual.

I'd love to see a Hoffman win, and think Hoffman has a great chance to win. But I'd like to see a poll that wasn't sponsored by a group that endorsed Hoffman that put him ahead before I felt confident about his chances in this race.

10/27 10:15 AM Share