Tuesday, March 04, 2008

BARACK OBAMA

Are We Witnessing an 'Obama Freefall'?

CNN projects Ohio for McCain. Well, that's no surprise. (MSNBC puts him within about 85 delegates of clinching the nomination.)

On the Democratic side, it's too close to call.

If the exit polls are dead even in Rhode Island, Texas, and Ohio, then the worst that can happen for Hillary is (probably) three narrow losses; more likely she gets at least one narrow win in a big state and she may get three narrow wins.

That's not good news for Barack Obama. Tonight he could have driven a stake into the coffin, and one of the key battlefields was one of the must-win swing states of 2004 and 2008. Over at Race42008, Sean asks what is behind the "Obama freefall," noting that Texas was looking good for him a week ago, and the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls have been trending badly for him.

It's probably a critical mass of bad news - the NAFTA-quiddick story, the Rezko trial, the "3 a.m." ad, the minor bobble on Louis Farrakhan in the debate, the accusation that he didn't hold any hearings as a subcommittee chairman because he was too busy campaigning, John McCain's "al-Qaeda is already in Iraq, it's called al-Qaeda in Iraq" one-liner... each individual news item has little impact on the polls, but collectively they probably chip away at his softest supporters. Word is the late deciders in Texas broke heavily for Hillary.

03/04 07:43 PMShare