Post Puts McDonnell Up 9; Voters Tiring of the Thesis Attacks

Thursday, October 08, 2009

HORSERACE, BARACK OBAMA

Is Virginia's governor's race starting to look clearer?

Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia, as momentum the Democrat had built with an attack on his opponent's conservative social views has dissipated, according to a new Washington Post poll.

McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents. Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell's 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.

The poll comes after a couple of strange developments in Virginia's governor's race in the past 24 hours.

First, yesterday Creigh Deeds offered his first comments that could be construed as saying that Obama's agenda is making his election outlook tougher. Around the same time, the Wall Street Journal said that the White House was "stepping back from lending its heft" in the governor's race.

Then today, Tim Kaine, the current governor of Virginia and the head of the DNC, said he couldn't say whether Obama would come and campaign for Deeds before Election Day.

If Obama could put Deeds over the top, he would go. (Heck, the guy went to Copenhagen to help Chicago win the Olympics.) If Deeds thought Obama could help, the answer would be yes.

One could imagine that each side — the Deeds camp and the Obama administration — would find it useful to be able to blame the other if Bob McDonnell wins in November. If the Post poll is accurate, perhaps he will win by a wide margin.

The Deeds campaign may say, after Election Night, "What could we do? Obama was spending like mad and tacking left, completely different from the moderate guy who won this state last year. There was no way to win with a backlash reverberating through Virginia's electorate."

The Obama campaign may say, after Election Night, "What could we do? Have you seen this guy campaign? He's terrible!"

UPDATE: This nugget has to be particularly disappointing for Deeds: "Overall, Northern Virginia voters break 51 percent for Deeds to 46 percent for McDonnell."

10/08 04:10 PM Share