Tuesday, October 27, 2009

HORSERACE

A Slight Sense of Momentum for Chris Christie

As noted yesterday, the Suffolk poll showing Democrat Jon Corzine up 9 is garbage; you can't presume that turnout will be 93 percent.

Two polls out today have much brighter news for Republican Chris Christie; Rasmussen puts him up by 3 percentage points, while Public Policy Polling puts him up by 4 percentage points. What's more, PPP notes:

There are several indications within the numbers that Christie is in a better position than Corzine one week out from the election. 95 percent of his supporters say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 79 percent of Corzine's. Daggett's support continues to be pretty malleable, with only 57 percent of his voters saying they are strongly committed to him. 42 percent of Christie's voters are very excited about voting this fall to 29 percet of Corzine's who express that sentiment. The comparative excitement levels could have implications for which candidate is better able to get his supporters out.

I know some people have doubts about Rasmussen's robo-pollsters, but coupled with the PPP result, it does give some sense of momentum; every poll in the past month, besides Suffolk, has put the race within four percentage points. It appears that Christie's ads hitting Daggett are having an effect, and the wave for the independent has crested.

If PPP's numbers are accurate, Chris Christie and his supporters can feel good in this final week. But many of my readers fear that in a close race, the Apparition-American vote* will remain active after Halloween to vote Democrat. If Christie's got any more tricks up his sleeve, now's the time to use them.

* UPDATE: A reader fears this comment, meant to refer to voter fraud with ballots cast by dead voters, will somehow be construed as racially insensitive. (sigh) Lest anyone think I meant to offend, feel free to refer to these voters as casting "Eternally Absentee Ballots."

10/27 11:18 AMShare