Rasmussen: When Nobody Closes the Deal, Huckabee Steps In

Monday, December 03, 2007

MIKE HUCKABEE, HORSERACE

I talked with pollster Scott Rasmussen about Huckabee’s rise, and several other topics:

On Huckabee’s Sudden Rise: “I think it’s more a reflection of the field in general than Huckabee personally. Had anybody else resonated with GOP primary voters, this would have been impossible. What Mike Huckabee is doing is validating the dream of Thompson’s supporters - that there was a vacuum or void in the race, but Thompson didn’t grab it for whatever reason.

It’s not a one day blip. Each individual night in our tracking poll he was ahead of others in the race for in second place. He’s been steady since the debate and the initial reaction to that. My expectation is that other campaigns are going to aggressively highlight different aspects of his record. He will show us if he can stand up to it or not. If he does, this race is more wide open than anybody can imagine.

Iowa caucusgoers more serious about the campaign than anyone else, because the decision is closest for them… They’ve seen more of Huckabee. When those numbers came out close to ours, or some having him ahead a little bit, it validated him. It took some of that Thompson constituency and said, ‘this is the guy.’

On Thompson’s Doldrums: I don’t know that there has been good news for Thompson in particular, but there's still at least a reason to think there is a possible nomination for him, and the strongest evidence of that is John McCain. McCain was written off by just about everybody. He had a 51 percent unfavorable rating in his home state during the immigration debate. And now, while I wouldn’t describe him as the likely nominee, he’s doing well enough.

McCain is essentially tied for second in New Hampshire. He’s been able to come back for the same reason Mike Huckabee doing well — nobody else closed the sale. If Fred is still in double digits nationally, depending on how everybody else does, he can still win this. While I wouldn’t go as far as others have and predict a convention fight, it’s becoming a more credible possibility that we will not have a Republican nominee by February 5.

On the Union-Leader’s Endorsement of McCain: The reason I think it’s a big deal has a lot of do with the fact that McCain was so far down. This is a man who was way down in the polls. Also, notice that they acknowledged in their editorial that they strongly disagreed with him in some areas,, particularly campaign finance reform. It revives his campaign, gives him legitimacy he hasn’t had since his campaign imploded in June.

On Campaigning During the Holidays: There will come a point where the campaign gets frozen in place during the holidays, probably a week or two away. I don’t have the answers to this, but the notion that these candidates are going to have to step away from the trail for a period adds a level of uncertainty in the turnout. Lots of people go away, and for lots of people, the last thing they want to do is hear from a politician during the holiday season. The candidates need a tactful way to reach out to people that doesn’t offend them. I don’t know how you do it – I’m glad I’m not a political strategist working for one of the candidates.

12/03 04:10 PM Share