Wednesday, October 28, 2009

HORSERACE

Peeking at the Early Returns of New Jersey's Absentee Ballots

Those who have access to the numbers asked me to not cite specific figures, so I will report only that in New Jersey, Democrats have a modest advantage over the GOP in absentee ballots requested.

In relation to their share of registered voters, Democrats are modestly higher than their registered numbers, Republicans are significantly higher, and independent/unaffiliated are much lower. Democrats make up 34 percent of registered voters in New Jersey, Republicans make up 20 percent, and independent, unaffiliated or other parties make up 46 percent.

The Democrats have a slight lead in number of absentee ballots returned so far. The overall sense for this, from a pro-Christie perspective, is that the news is okay, but could be much better.

I would note, however, that it's not certain that a Democratic absentee ballot is a vote for Corzine, and that a Republican absentee is a vote for Christie.

The latest PPP poll shows Corzine supported by only 67 percent of Democrats, and Christie supported by only 82 percent of Republicans. The Rutgers-Eagleton poll shows getting 71 percent of Democrats, while Chrstie gets 75 percent of Republicans. For what it’s worth, today’s Quinnipiac poll has Corzine taking only 79 percent of Democrats and Christie taking only 79 percent of Republicans.

10/28 12:22 PMShare