Tuesday, September 25, 2007

HORSERACE

Four Reasons Republicans Won't Show Up For the Morgan State Debate

I’m slated to appear on Captain Ed’s show on BlogTalkRadio this afternoon at 3 p.m., discussing criticism of the top Republican candidates for not appearing at the Morgan State University debate this week.

 

The way I see it, the debate, slated to focus on African-American issues, has four problems deterring the top Republican candidates from showing up.

Problem One: It’s on PBS. As one Republican strategist told me earlier this year, “our voters watch Fox News.” The last Republican debate on Fox News drew a 2.2 rating and 2.47 million households (UPDATE 3.14 million viewers.) I haven’t been able to find the ratings for the AARP debate on PBS last week, but I suspect the audience was tiny; it certainly didn’t make much of a splash in the news. 

All of these candidates have an immediate and pressing goal, to win over Republican primary voters. Nevermind whether the topic is one that is important to those groups of voters; the venue is one they don't watch.

 

Problem two: It’s at the end of the fundraising cycle. This doesn’t prevent every candidate from every debate invitation, but the organizers of this debate had to know this when they set the date. One might even suspect they picked the time of year candidates were least likely to show up. Appearing at this debate will take them away from a fundraiser, and several of these guys need to collect every last dollar before the deadline to avoid the “he’s toast” buzz.

 

Problem three: There are too darn many of these debates, and with the exception of the YouTube debate, the debates have been getting really predictable. Pretty much the same questions, pretty much the same answers each time. Candidates can legitimately ask, “is anybody going to be watching this?” Only political junkies like us are seeking out debates to watch, and to be honest, if watching them wasn’t part of my job, I’d be tempted to tune them out after an hour.

 

And, as noted at the link above, it’s not like this is the only debate the top Republican candidates are turning down – they turned down the ValuesVoter event as well. Is this a sign of anti-Christian attitudes in the GOP's frontrunners? Come on, it says the opportunity cost of participating in that debate was too high.

 

Problem four: Moderator Tavis Smiley. I like Tavis Smiley. He did a fine job moderating the Democratic debate, and I think he would make an attempt to be fair in moderating a Republican one. But he’s not shy about his views. He wrote a book entitled, "Hard Left: Straight Talk About the Wrongs of the Right." He just hosted a book event for Bill Clinton.  (I will note, that when Smiley left NPR, he said: 

WHAT'S MORE DIVERSE THESE DAYS — NPR OR PRESIDENT BUSH'S CABINET?

 

Bush's Cabinet. It is ironic that a Republican President has an Administration that is more inclusive and more diverse than a so-called liberal-media-elite network.)

And when asked about Republicans not showing up for this debate, Smiley responded, "When you reject every black invitation and every brown invitation you receive, is that a scheduling issue or is it a pattern?... I don't believe anybody should be elected president of the United States if they think along the way they can ignore people of color. That's just not the America we live in."

 

When you pretty much accuse candidates of racism before they walk in the door, that doesn't make them more inclined to accept your invitation.

 

Should Republicans appear at a debate focusing on African-American issues? Sure. Just do it after the fundraising deadline, let Fox News simulcast it with PBS or whoever, and get a panel of moderators/questioners that includes not just Smiley or Gwen Ifill but Deroy Murdock, Thomas Sowell, Ward Connerly, or any other African-American who would not come at the candidates from the left but from the right, and those candidates will come running.

UPDATE: A reader asks how this is different from Democrats refusing to appear on Fox News, and my earlier mockery of them.

 

Let’s take the arguments in order – would a Democratic debate on Fox News Channel reach Democrats? Yes. Because of Fox News’ much larger audience than other news channels, Democratic debate on that channel would still reach a pretty large audience.

 

I can’t find how many Republicans watch PBS, but the Pew Center found earlier this year that Fox News’ audience is 43 percent Republican, 21 percent Democrat. (By comparison, CNN's viewers were 43 percent Democrat, 22 percent Republican and network news viewers were 41 percent Democrat, 24 percent Republican.)

 

Twenty-one percent of Fox News’ most recent debate audience of 3.14 million comes out to 659,400 Democrats. By comparison, CNN’s highest rated Republican debate this year came to about 2.05 million viewers, reaching 451,000 Republicans. Hillary can reach more Democrats on Fox than the number of  Republicans Giuliani can reach on CNN.

 

The issues of the end of the fundraising cycle rush and number of debates are about the same for each party. Arguably to their credit (I guess it depends on how edifying you're finding their debates lately) Democrats continue to have debates, the AARP debate last week and another this week in New Hampshire.

 

As for the choice of moderator, I don't think Republicans should boycott Tavis Smiley. If they want to appear on his talk show, they should go right ahead. But after having Republican debates moderated by former Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill aide Chris Matthews and former Democratic President Bill Clinton aide George Stephanopolous, GOP candidates are justified in asking when they get a moderator with any equivalent Republican experience. I would note that my fourth point is about Smiley and his particular writings; the Democrats don’t object to any single moderator or figure on Fox News but to the entire network.

 

And if Brit Hume, Chris Wallace, or Wendell Goler had written a book entitled, “Hard Right: Straight Talk About the Wrongs of the Left,” Democrats would have all the reason in the world to object.

09/25 12:50 PMShare