Monday, November 02, 2009

HORSERACE

A Reason For Skepticism on Quinnipiac's Latest

Look, as noted below, I think New Jersey's governor's race is going to be really close, and a Christie win is possible. But I wouldn't take too much reassurance from today's Quinnipiac poll.

The party identification split for the poll out this morning is 34 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent, with 3 percent other and 4 percent not knowing or not answering. As I've been writing this year, New Jersey's a pretty Democratic state, so I can see it being well more than the national split, and in the neighborhood of the high single digits or low double digits - 9 to 13, maybe? A four point split suggests that many one-time Democrats have given up that identification since... oh, the last Quinnipiac poll, which put it at 40 percent Democrat, 25 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent.

I'd love for New Jersey to be a marginally Democratic state, and it could happen someday. But I don't believe that it happened overnight.

11/02 11:23 AMShare