Wednesday, August 22, 2007

MITT ROMNEY, HORSERACE

How Negative Is Too Negative in a Primary?

I’ve already run afoul of fans of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for calling him odd, so if you’re inclined to see me as a relentless Romney-basher, be warned that the remainder of this post may irk you. (And continue ignoring posts like these.)

We know nobody wins a party primary without throwing a metaphorical punch or two. Pointing out the strengths in your record usually isn’t enough; pointing out the flaws in one’s opponent is fair game. (Even if the Massachusetts governor suggested in the Iowa debate that there was something inherently wrong or unethical about discussing your opponent’s record.) 

But there are signs that the latest jabs by Mitt Romney might be stirring up bad blood among opposing campaigns - or more than usual in these races.

 

At this point in the race, all the staffers for the leading candidates like their guy and don’t like the other guys. Of course they’re going to bad-mouth the opposition. Of course they’re going to see their man as Charles De Gaulle when he was at Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises during the Fourth Republic being asked, 'Don't you want to rush in and join the pygmies?', to use a metaphor that just rolls off the tongue. 

 

But when the staffers of Romney’s rivals talk about the Massachusetts governor, their disdain feels a bit more personal. The grating of their teeth goes up a few decibels. Some say they’ll be able to support him in the general election – even though they’re absolutely certain their man is going to be the nominee, and so the question is completely hypothetical — but others hint that they won’t.

 

I’ll get to their comments in a moment, but here’s my theory on the phenomenon: From 2002 through 2006, there were two men who were more desired on the campaign trail for House and Senate Republican candidates than anyone else (other than perhaps the President): John McCain, and Rudy Giuliani. And they attended one fundraising dinner and campaign rally after another, traveling wherever the party needed them. So even if a Republican campaign consultant disagrees with McCain on immigration or campaign finance reform, or with Giuliani on guns or abortion, there’s a certain level of respect there, a sense that Giuliani and McCain have paid their dues and established their bona fides as good “party men” and helped GOP congressional candidates.

 

As for Fred Thompson and Sam Brownback, they’ve established pretty conservative records in the Senate going back a ways, and Fred’s been to a slew of party dinners lately. Romney, by comparison, is a relative newcomer to the scene, winning his first office in 2002, and just doesn’t have that national profile among Republicans, as reflected in his name ID poll numbers. He’s contributed heavily to conservative causes (including buying a table at an NRO dinner, if I recall correctly) but he's not a "movement conservative" in the traditional sense. And when his opponents point to his Romney 1994 Senate debate comment — "I was an independent during Reagan-Bush, I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush" — it reinforces the sense that Romney just isn't a guy who's been with the conservative base through thick and thin, and who doesn't have the standing to criticize other candidates' deviations from conservative orthodoxy.

 

One conservative communications guy for one candidate says he was amenable to supporting Romney for President for much of last year, arguing, “even though he was a panderer, he was at least pandering to us.” But now the “there came a point where the entire Romney campaign just became an insult to my intelligence.”

 

This staffer points to Romney’s frequent invocations of his training of state troopers to combat illegal immigration in his state. Romney’s ad says, “Mitt Romney is the exceptional Governor who took a stand so State Police could enforce federal immigration laws.” Well, yes, but he did it in the closing weeks of his term, and the program never actually went into effect. Romney’s successor, Democrat Deval Patrick, scrapped the program before the state troopers began training.

 

(Is citing a state police program that never went into effect really the most compelling evidence Romney can cite to establish he opposes illegal immigration? Really? And did he think none of his rivals or the media would notice?)

   

This guy says that if Romney wins the GOP nomination, he’ll vote for him, but he “shudders” at the thought of defending him for four years.

 

A Republican consultant with ties to one of Romney’s non-Thompson rivals says, “Romney’s counting on people to have short memories. What choice does he have? I mean, aren't his politics basically Fred’s, except Fred is genuine? Is Romney's narrative going to be, ‘Fred is lazy, I'm a workhorse, and I can defeat Hillary because I'll work harder?’… He’ll also get slammed with $50 million in flip-flopper ads. Romney is going to have dig deep into that fortune.”

 

In another case, an aide to a candidate of… less than ideal socially conservative views says he looks forward to candidates that do have those views going after the Massachusetts Governor: “Romney talks about the three legs of the stool, with social conservatism being one of the three legs of that stool. Well, Huckabee and Brownback and Thompson might have something to say about Romney’s claim to that leg of the stool.” 

 

Of course, going “too negative” is in the eye of the beholder. With Romney leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, his supporters can contend that these comments are driven by jealousy, not any serious potential lingering animosity. And in an inverse of the McCain phenomenon – as he dropped, he stopped getting hit by other candidates, as there was less to gain – the increasing “can-you-believe-the-nerve-of-this-guy?” hits on Romney might just reflect that he’s become important enough to attack. By comparison, no candidate has spent much time criticizing Mike Huckabee yet; at this point, he doesn't appear to have enough supporters to want to dissuade.

 

And at least one staffer for a Romney rival I spoke to predicted it would all blow over if Romney got the nomination. "Every race I've done, you get people saying they'll never vote for the other guy, they'll vote for the Democrat. And it never happens. They see the Democrats attacking the Republican candidate unfairly and they rush to the defense of their nominee."

08/22 02:53 PMShare