Monday, January 21, 2008

HORSERACE

Weird Florida Polls

We've been hearing, and I've been saying, that the polls indicate a wide-open, four-man race in Florida. But the polls actually indicate some separation between those four guys.

Insider Advantage puts Huckabee at 13 percent, quite a ways behind Giuliani at 21 percent. Research 2000 puts Huckabee at 17 percent, but has McCain leading at 26 percent.

Survey USA puts McCain and Giuliani at 25 and 23 percent, respectively, with Romney and Huckabee tied with 18 percent.

Strategic Vision has McCain up considerably, with 27 percent, and Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney trailing with 20, 18 and 17 percents respectively.

So we can draw from this that McCain is probably up a bit, Giuliani's a bit behind him, and Romney and Huckabee are probably a bit further behind that.

But then Drudge tells us:

FLASH: RASMUSSEN Florida poll to be released: Romney 25, McCain 20, Giuliani 19... Developing...

It's not that I don't believe it, so much as I'm not sure what's happened that would trigger a mini-Mitt surge. Were Floridians eagerly awaiting the results of the Nevada caucus? Are they buying into the idea that the cumulative vote-getter and delegate winner is the true frontrunner? Does fourth place in South Carolina strike them as some great omen? Were they flattered that he gave his Nevada victory speech in Jacksonville?

So - I think McCain is the leader in Florida, but his national numbers (see below) indicate that as long as he finishes well, he should be in at least okay position for Super Tuesday. Guiliani's actually in pretty good shape, with a shot to win. And I realized this morning that a close second place finish, while not getting Giuliani any delegates, would also be acceptable - it would indicate that his wait-until-Florida strategy wasn't madness.

Romney still has an outside shot at Florida, and he's probably putting all necessary resources into the state. And then there's Huckabee, who has a chance - the Panhandle and northern part of the state that is sometimes described as "southern Georgia" certainly ought to be fertile territory — but he would seem to need the rest of the field to split almost perfectly - he gets 23 percent, everybody else gets 21 or 20 percent.

01/21 11:07 AMShare