Thursday, October 09, 2008

BARACK OBAMA

Who's Most Worried About a Bradley Effect?

I've gone back-and-forth on whether we're going to see any significant "Wilder effect" or "Bradley effect this year. For much of the year, I figured most Americans who opposed Obama would have no problem telling a pollster "I'm supporting Clinton" in the primaries or "I'm supporting McCain" in the general. But then as the knee-jerk accusations that oppostion to Obama is synonymous with racism piled up, I wondered if a certain segment of voters might want to deter those accusations by pledging Obama support, even if they intended to vote otherwise.

Among those skeptical of a Bradley effect this year are John Zogby, Michelle Obama, and the Chicago Tribune’s Eric Zorn.

Among those who think that there is a Bradley effect, is Charles Henry, the U-C Berkeley professor who first researched the Bradley effect, and former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown. Brown put it at five percent in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia.

The interesting thing is that judging from the comments of Brown and those influencing the thinking of Juan Williams of NPR and Fox News, at least some Obama surrogates are among those most convinced that the Bradley Effect will show up on Election Day.  "Obama's got to have a buffer of 5 to 8 percentage points," Williams said. "So if you have a race in which McCain is at, you know, 41, and Obama's at 41, then imagine that really what you're looking at is McCain at 49, Obama at 41."

The great Jay Cost has a thought-provoking article in the latest print edition of NR (you're subscribing, right?), noting that the idea of a false response depends on social cues — i.e., the sense that there is public approval for a white supporting the black candidate and disapproval for not supporting the white candidate. The demographics most attuned to those social cues? Voters with higher socioeconomic status (wealth) and voters with college degrees. His research finds that the evidence is inconclusive for age being a factor.

Obama's strongest demographics outside African-Americans? Voters with higher socioeconomic status (wealth), voters with college degrees, and young voters. Hmmm...

Cost, a solid researcher, says that for now, we can't tell if there will be a Bradley effect. If he's not convinced, I'm not convinced...

...yet.

10/09 04:25 PMShare