Monday, November 02, 2009

HORSERACE

The Case for Republican Optimism in New Jersey

As I more or less expected, quite a few readers expect a different outcome in New Jersey, and think I'm way too pessimistic in predicting a Jon Corzine win under suspicious circumstances. If I am wrong, I will be elated, and as mentioned earlier, one of my readers who does a lot of number crunching of polls thinks that the electorate has actually been pretty consistent all year, that only low 40some percent of New Jersey voters want another four years of Corzine. He's been expecting a Christie win by 4 percent or so, and now these last polls are more or less in line with that.

Another reader makes his case: "The remaining votes for Daggett are Democrats who hate Corzine but can't stomach voting for a Republican. Daggett's candidacy is actually going to benefit Christie and he's going to win by 5 points over Corzine. I've got my money where my mouth is on InTrade too."

Obviously, if you're in New Jersey, don't get pessimistic on my account.

11/02 11:59 AM Share