Monday, November 02, 2009

HORSERACE

Here's How New Jersey Looks Without Polling Trick-or-Treaters...

Great, two more surveys out in New Jersey, with one each to please each side. Monmouth University/Gannett puts Corzine up by 2 with Daggett at 8 percent; SurveyUSA puts Christie up by 3 with Daggett at 10 percent. But I can't help but notice these groups polled on Halloween - you figure a lot of parents are out taking their little ones trick-or-treating.

Survey USA shows independents splitting  55 percent to 25 percent in favor of Christie, while Monmouth shows him leading by a more modest 43 percent to 33 percent. In Monmouth's poll, Christie's advantage among independents shrunk from 22 percentage points to 10 percentage points in a span of two days.

A couple of observations - this one is going to be close, obviously. Second, while this doesn't completely discount seeing an impact tomorrow, the initial sense is that we're not really seeing much of an Obama bump, even though the President has moved to New Jersey appeared in the state several times for Corzine in the past weeks. Third, despite my earlier pessimism, I have a hard time seeing independents breaking hard for Corzine, as Monmouth suggests.

11/02 12:44 PMShare