Tuesday, January 29, 2008

BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary Could Steal the Nomination Through Michigan and Florida

I can't believe I'm writing this, but the Democratic nomination may come down to whether or not the delegates from Michigan and Florida are seated at the national convention.

According to CNN, right now Hillary's ahead in the delegate count, 230 to to 152. The winner needs 2,025. But Hillary's lead is almost entirely already-committed superdelegates, as the contests so far have been all near-ties in terms of delegates: Both she and Obama got 18 out of Iowa, CNN gives Obama one more delegate out of New Hampshire (a sort-of explanation here), they split Nevada 14 each, and Obama won South Carolina's, 26 to 14.

Looking forward, 370 out of the 441 delegates in California are awarded proportionally. In New York, 151 out of 281 are awarded proportionally, so Obama could walk away with (if current polls are accurate) about 45 delegates from Hillary's home state. Similarly, she could get about 22 percent of Illinois' 153 delegates, about 33 delegates.

States on the Democrat side are proportional. And it's easy to see a lot of 50some percent to 40some percent finishes, with John Edwards perhaps not hitting that 15 percent threshold to collect any delegates. But Edwards still has a decent pile (58 delegates) and should hit the 15 percent threshold in his at least his most friendly states (North Carolina). With Ted Kennedy and Kathleen Sebelius endorsing Obama, Hillary's edge in superdelegates could and in fact should start balancing out; it's not like there's one clear establishment choice and one clear outsider choice anymore.

While it's possible we could see a big sweep on Super Tuesday and beyond, it's more likely that Hillary will win some, Obama will win some, and because of proportional delegate rules, neither one builds up a big lead in the delegate race.

If both Hillary and Obama are short of the majority necessary, there will be 156 delegates from Michigan and 210 delegates from Florida, most of which will be for Hillary, sitting on the sidelines. The Clintons will fight tooth and nail to get those into the count.

Under that scenario, the Obama camp and their supporters will be able to legitimately charge that yes, they did have the nomination stolen from them. The DNC ruled that those states forfeited their delegates by holding their primary before February 5. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan. He followed the rules; what he didn't realize was that the Clintons would get the rules changed.

01/29 01:59 PMShare