Obama's Not Toast, But Polls Show the Toaster Getting Warmer

Thursday, March 20, 2008

BARACK OBAMA

Last night on Hugh Hewitt's program, the host found it hard to imagine that the superdelegates might turn away from Obama, overrule the cast votes and/or delegates, and essentially hand the nomination to Hillary Clinton. I think it's entirely possible that the superdelegates will bet that enough African-Americans get over it and vote Democrat in November, rather than give up the entire white working class vote (and, arguably, Latinos and the elderly).

This morning, I point to the latest batch of polls from Survey USA:

Ohio
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%

Missouri
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 46%
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 39%

Kentucky
McCain (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 43%
McCain (R) 64%, Obama (D) 28%

Superdelegates can read polls; the Ohio GOP has been in lousy shape for a long while now. A Democrat that is going to lose Ohio — and who can't even keep the score respectable in Missouri — is not going to win the presidency.

UPDATE: Campaign Spot reader Jon disagrees, and thinks the superdelegates will back Obama, "They will be haunted by the gnawing realization that if nominating Obama proves to be a mistake, it will just cost them this election, while if nominating Hillary proves to be a mistake, it will cost them this election and so much more."

Would African-Americans "divorce" the Democratic party for the long term if the superdelegates hand the nomination to Hillary? Or will they tell themselves that perennial justification on both sides of the aisle, "well, where else are they going to go?"

I guess my quibble with Jon is his faith in the superdelegates' ability to weigh long-term consequences... to say nothing of following up two tough losses in the past two presidential races with a potential landslide loss.

03/20 10:08 AM Share