Tuesday, February 05, 2008

MITT ROMNEY

Word From Middle Cheese: Reasons for Rom-timism

Word from Middle Cheese, my source from 2004 now affiliated with Team Romney:

I’ve become more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours about Romney's chances in California.

Multiple data sources, including both public and internal polling, now show a clear trend for Mitt, and possibly a very sharp one.  Both national and local conservative talk radio bashing McCain is have an impact on California GOP primary voters, who tend to be very conservative. I think I’m comfortable saying now that he could win about 2/3 of the districts in California, which would also give him the bonus delegates and the narrative of winning the state.  I didn’t think this was likely at all 24-48 hours ago.

He also notes a big crowd at the Romney event in Long Beach.

If California comes together for Romney in the final 48 hours, it will be a remarkable story of two last second back-from-the-grave moments in his campaign. Losing Michigan would have been an effective nail in the coffin, and much of last week looked gloomy for Romney. Maybe the post-Super-Tuesday race will be a marathon on both sides...

UPDATE: A reader raises a point I hadn't thought of... if the east coast states go McCain (and they almost certainly will, at least New York, Connecticut, New Jersey), will that depress turnout for Romney on the West Coast?

Georgia is called at 7 p.m.; most of the east coast states besides New York close at 8 p.m. eastern.

02/05 10:02 AMShare