Saturday, November 07, 2009

HORSERACE

The 2010 Outlook for the Confirmed Democrat 'No' Votes

The known Democratic "No" votes on Pelosicare, with a quick comment about their 2010 outlook:

• John Adler, N.J.: Counties in his district swung heavily to Christie Tuesday.
• John Barrow, Ga.: Always among most vulnerable Democrats. He's survived in recent years, but 2010 will probably be much tougher than 2006 or 2008.
• Dan Boren, Okla.: Classic red-state Democrat represents district with an R+14 Partisan Voting Index.
• Allen Boyd, Fla.: Represents Florida's eastern panhandle, an R+6 district.
• Bobby Bright, Ala.: Been a top NRCC target all year long, has top-tier challenger in Martha Roby.
• Travis W. Childers, Miss.: North Mississippi district with an R+14 rating.
• Artur Davis, Ala.: Off to run for governor.
• Bart Gordon, Tenn.: See his flip-flop-flip here.
• Parker Griffith, Ala.: Represents northern edge of Alabama, R+12 district.
• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, S.D.: Has kept herself secure in deep-red state with careful voting; lifetime ACU rating of 33.
• Larry Kissell, N.C.: The netroots are so proud.
• Suzanne M. Kosmas, Fla.: Many, many Medicare recipients in her district.
• Frank Kratovil Jr., Md.: Won his seat by the skin of his teeth last year as Obama was carrying the state easily.
• Daniel Lipinski, Ill.: Pro-life Democrat just found out he won't face serious Democratic primary opposition as deadline passed Monday.
• Jim Marshall, Ga.: Like Barrow, usually on list of Democrats' most vulnerable.
• Mike McIntyre, N.C.: Indicated early that he was concerned about cost; represents R+5 district.
• Michael E. McMahon, N.Y.:
• Charlie Melancon, La.: Running for Senate against David Vitter.
• Walt Minnick, Idaho: Vaughn Ward is a great GOP challenger in an R+18 district.
• Ike Skelton, Mo.: First elected in 1976, but represents an R+14 district and faces some potentially strong challengers, former state rep. Vicky Hartzler or state sen. Bill Stouffer.
• John Tanner, Tenn.: An unknown gospel-singing farmer outraised him last quarter.

A late addition is Chet Edwards of Texas, who faced those warm and welcoming crowds when he tried to sell the health-care bill at town-hall meetings during his August recess.

UPDATE: Seven more coming.

• Brian Baird, Wash.: Challenger David Castillo canceled a press conference this morning at which he would have raised heck over Baird's "yes" vote.
• Eric Massa, N.Y.: Won 50.9 percent of the vote as Obama was winning New York by a wide margin.
• Jim Matheson, Utah: Ran strong in recent years, but declined to run for statewide office, suggesting potential for rough year in an R+15 district.
• Glenn Nye, Va.: Republican Bob McDonnell carried Nye's district by 24 percentage points Tuesday.
• Collin Peterson, Minn: Doesn't often see strong challenges but is strongly pro-life and worries about cost.
• Gene Taylor, Miss.: Longtime Blue Dog should be secure, but district is now R+20.
• Harry Teague, N.M.: NRCC loves chances of former congressman Steve Pearce in 2010. District is R+6.

11/07 02:06 PMShare